Four take-aways from Georgia’s runoff election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene

Republican Clay Fuller is set to become the newest congressman from Georgia after defeating Democrat Shawn Harris in a special election runoff Tuesday. Fuller is a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard and former district attorney for the Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit. He rose to the top of a crowded GOP primary field after […]

Republican Clay Fuller is set to become the newest congressman from Georgia after defeating Democrat Shawn Harris in a special election runoff Tuesday.

Fuller is a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard and former district attorney for the Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit. He rose to the top of a crowded GOP primary field after getting President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

But Fuller wasn’t the only one celebrating Tuesday night. Also celebrating, seemingly counterintuitively, are the Democrats.

It was a nationally watched race, and it’s only getting started. Here are four big takeaways.

Democrats gained ground in Tuesday’s election, but Republicans still enjoy a strong home team advantage in the 14th

The reason Democrats are cheering despite racking up a loss comes down to the margin of Fuller’s win.

According to unofficial numbers from the secretary of state’s website, Fuller came out with just under 56% of the vote to Harris’ 44%, about 12 percentage points.

Harris took on Greene in 2024’s general election and lost by about 29%.

Those races were under different circumstances, said Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie, but the big change in the margin could spell good news for Democrats.

“I think that this suggests, one, that there’s a very strong potential that there’s going to be some type of national wave,” she said. “The way that this affects Georgia is if Democrats like (U.S. Sen.) Jon Ossoff and whoever the Democratic nominee for governor is can harness that energy to get people to turn out to vote for them in November, it helps them to overcome the numerical disadvantages that Democrats naturally face in the state.”

Kennesaw State University political science professor Jason Shepherd, who previously chaired the Cobb County Republican Party, said Democratic cheerleading is unwarranted given that the party entered the race with numerous advantages.

“All the votes came in during a period when we were actively engaged in hostilities in Iran, the ceasefire announcement didn’t come until after the polls closed,” he said. “We’ve been seeing, obviously, gas prices rise. We’ve seen greater affordability issues as a result of that, pressing family budgets. And it’s a special election with low turnout.”

“They had every single wind blowing for them, and they still came up short,” he added.

A statewide race is a whole different ball game

Fuller celebrated on election night at a historic train depot in Ringgold with family and supporters, but he won’t have too much time to party before it’s time to get down to legislating – and running for re-election.

Fuller earned the right to serve out the rest of Greene’s term, but he’ll be up for re-election again in November, along with roles up and down the ballot, from Georgia governor, Ossoff’s U.S. Senate seat and all constitutional officers and legislators. That means Fuller will be back on the ballot next month competing again for the GOP nomination for a full term.

Harris is now running unopposed for the Democratic nomination to compete for the seat again. His chances of victory are low, Gillespie said, but he may still be of use to Democrats like Ossoff.

“If somebody is going to turn out to vote for Shawn Harris in this district, that means that they are probably willing to vote for Jon Ossoff, and it means that they’re probably willing to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is for governor,” she said. “So Shawn Harris helps the Democrats by performing strongly and leaving everything on the table in this particular district, even if he himself does not get over the line.”

Shepherd said he doubts the predictive power of Tuesday’s win for November, but he said Ossoff’s opponents already realize they have their work cut out for them.

“If you’re Derek Dooley, Mike Collins or Buddy Carter, you’re already looking at the fact that it’s hard to unseat an incumbent,” he said. “It’s hard to unseat an incumbent of the opposition party in a midterm election when your party has the White House. Those things are truisms.”

“It’s going to be a hard midterm for Republicans, and that’s just the way it is,” Shepherd added.

Results show that Trump is still a major factor for and against Republicans

Trump likely has a big part to play in Republicans’ fortunes, for good or ill, Shepherd said. The president could inadvertently boost Democratic turnout and encourage conservatives not to vote in this year’s midterms.

“It’ll become a referendum on Donald Trump,” he said. “It’ll be Democrats, left-leaning independents and even moderate independents who want to send a message by voting, by making sure they get out and vote. Midterm elections, like special elections, have lower turnout. So it’s always about getting your voters out to the polls.”

“And for Republicans who don’t like Trump, or even MAGA supporters who thought Trump promised no more foreign wars and are disappointed, they may stay home. They may come out and vote in local races, but if it’s specifically a Trump-endorsed candidate, they may skip that.”

A recent Morning Consult poll finds Trump at 38% approval.

Gillespie said it’s still too early to predict how Americans will feel about Trump when they start putting ballots in boxes this fall. Prognosticators will be updating their models through the summer and fall.

“Things could change and we always have to open ourselves up to the possibility that the stuff that people are mad about now looks very different,” she said. “That doesn’t negate history,” she added, “which does suggest that the president’s party does lose seats.”

Voters don’t divide into neat groups

As voters in northwest Georgia headed to the polls Tuesday, they remained deeply divided over the district’s future, with many seeing the special election as a referendum on the Republican Party’s identity. Some conservative voters said they wanted to prove the region is moving toward a more stable form of conservatism, while others tried to show that the area remains a stronghold for the MAGA movement.

Fuller’s supporters said a victory for him would signal that the region remains firmly committed to a Christian, conservative foundation.

“I hope [the results] send a message that we are still a Christian nation,” said Melvin Wheat, an electrician who voted for Fuller. Wheat, who identifies as a conservative rather than just a Republican, said he wants the district to show it still aligns with Christian values on issues like abortion and marriage.

“We’re not choosing [candidates] to be any kind of savior or anything, but they need to align with what I believe,” Wheat said, pointing to his anti-abortion stance.

But a vocal segment of voters on Tuesday expressed hope that the election would break stereotypes about the district and signal a rejection of the current political climate.

“We hope it sends the Republican candidate into hiding and it shows we’re not as backward as – we’re not a bunch of rednecks,” said Randall Eidson, a retired resident of Rome who voted for Harris. Eidson, a former Republican who broke with the party over Trump, said he wanted the country to see that there are voters in the district who “think for themselves.”

For younger voters and those aligned with the Democratic platform, the goal was to demonstrate that progressive turnout is growing in traditionally conservative territory. Kenneth Davis, a cigar salesman, said he hoped the numbers would show a “positive outlook for the midterms” and prove that Democratic votes in red districts still matter.

Some Harris supporters framed their vote as a stance against the negative rhetoric of the past few years. Alexis Terry, who voted for the Democrat, said her vote was a message that “we don’t support negativity and hate and awfulness and murder and death and kidnapping and everything,” referring to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement.

“This is insane. This is all insane. I can’t believe that I’m not asleep right now,” Terry said. “ Nothing has felt real since 2020 honestly, at least.”

SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE